Indonesian Marriage Trends and the Second Demographic Transition

Most people associate this phenomenon with the trend of wedding costs, child financing, and increasingly expensive house prices, which are not accompanied by a proportionate increase in income.

Second demographic transition

The author sees this phenomenon as a symptom of Indonesia in the process of second demographic transition (SDT). SDT refers to the process of demographic transition in Western Europe that began in 1965. Theoretically, SDT describes the transition to a fertility rate below the replacement rate.

Also read: The High Rate of Child Marriage in Indonesia

More specifically, the SDT process is marked by several symptoms, such as changes in family norms, an increasing trend of shifting from marriage to cohabitation (living together without marriage bonds), changes in family norms that revolve around the child to a family centered on oneself/partner, and the emergence of various household types (HT).

In terms of changes in family norms, a common thing that occurs is the emergence of dual earner families (families with two breadwinners). This is in line with the trend of increasing female work participation rates.

Apart from that, changes have also emerged in the family format, marked by the emergence of new household economics (NHE). NHE assumes that the household's demand to have children is determined by the costs or opportunity costs of raising children and the level of family income.

If previously children were seen as an economic investment that allowed for returns through children as workers and providers of financial support for parents in old age (Todaro & Smith, 2020), now children are no longer seen as a form of investment.

The decision to have children now involves considering that by having children, individuals or households must "sacrifice" resources such as time allocation, financial costs, and even career opportunities. With the trend of increasing numbers of women working and starting careers, having children is no longer seen as an investment or "workforce", but rather an opportunity cost.

Indonesian conditions

Then how to explain Indonesia's demographic trends through SDT? Utomo et al (2022) found that the SDT process in Indonesia was occurring by looking at fertility below the replacement rate in several provinces, including DKI Jakarta, DIY, East Java and Banten.

In addition, there were increases in age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; as well as growing diversity in RT types.

For example, in the context of variations in RT types, data from 1993-2020 reveals a shift. There has been an increase in the proportion of RT consisting of couples without children, from 7.43% in 1993 to 9.4% in 2020. Similarly, single-person RTs have also experienced an increasing trend, from 6.03% to 8.03%. On the other hand, the dominant type of RT, namely couples with children, has decreased from 55.14% to 50.48%.

With the increasing trend of women working and starting careers, having children is no longer seen as an investment or a "worker", but as an "opportunity cost".

Nevertheless, it should be noted that Indonesia has a high level of diversity in terms of geography and demography. The vast area of Indonesia creates heterogeneous conditions in terms of economy, culture, and demographics.

Therefore, the key features of SDT in this context do not appear and develop uniformly (Utomo, 2022). RT in developing countries do not act in a unitary manner, as depicted in the context of SDT in Europe (Todaro & Smith, 2020).

In addition, this demographic shift occurs amidst various tensions and contradictions in the direction of changing ideas related to marriage and family. The prevailing ideas that drive shifts in marriage, fertility, and family in Indonesia are not linear or singular in one direction.

Learn from South Korea

In the context of fertility levels, South Korea currently holds the position as the lowest. Their fertility rate in 2023 of 0.72 is quite far from the replacement rate, namely 2.1 . Globally, developed countries are experiencing declines in birth rates, but none are as extreme as South Korea.

This is the successive consequence of late marriage problems, followed by late childbearing, and finally infecundability or infertility in old age. This cannot be separated from the extremely high costs of raising children and also the opportunity costs of women in their careers.

The South Korean government provides various incentives, such as cash assistance for couples with children, ranging from monthly assistance to subsidized housing and free taxis.

Financial incentives such as these have not been successful, causing politicians to think of more "creative" solutions, such as hiring caregivers from Southeast Asia and exempting men from military service if they have three children before the age of 30. However, none of these solutions have been successful as expected.

Indeed, geographically, economically, and demographically, the conditions are very different from Indonesia. However, this is precisely the right time to immediately look at the future trends.

Indonesia has a problem with its diverse culture that affects the varied choices of each household in this context. Observing these differences is important in order to prevent Indonesia from falling into the same pit as other East Asian countries.

Saqib Fardan Ahmada

Researcher at the UGM Department of Social Development and Welfare