Golkar's Victory Configuration in North Sumatra

The dynamic politics in North Sumatra is inevitable due to its diversity of social identities among its residents. Each social identity grows in a non-dominant number. Referring to the results of the 2010 Population Census conducted by the Central Statistics Agency, at least 11 ethnic or sub-ethnic groups with non-dominant proportions reside in the province, which now has a population of 15.3 million.

The ethnic groups originating from Java Island, consisting of Javanese, Sundanese, Betawi and their various subgroups, account for one third of the total population (33.4 percent). In addition, there are various Batak ethnic groups, including Tapanuli/Toba (25.62 percent), Mandailing (11.27 percent), Karo (5.09 percent), Simalungun (2.04 percent), and Pakpak (0.73 percent). There are also Nias (6.36 percent), Malay (5.86 percent), Chinese (2.71 percent), Minang (2.66 percent), and Acehnese (0.97 percent).

Aside from the diversity of ethnic groups, the aspect of religious identity is also diverse. Islam, Christianity, Catholicism, Buddhism, Hinduism, Confucianism, and various faiths coexist.

At the provincial level, the concentration of primordial background of the population is not dominant. However, uniquely, the diversity of ethnicity and religion or belief also intertwines with pockets of settlements or geographical boundaries of regional governance.

As an illustration, regencies which are adjacent to Lake Toba, for example, are predominantly inhabited by the Batak Toba ethnic group. The majority religion is Protestant Christianity. Furthermore, in the surrounding area of South Tapanuli, the Mandailing ethnic group is dominant, which is more identified with Islamic religion. The same goes for other regions, which tend to be more concentrated on social identity.

In every political contestation, the primordial setting plays a role. In relatively homogeneous district and city areas, of course the pattern of competition with a primordial background is relatively less prominent. However, the intersection of the diverse social identities of North Sumatra residents that occurs in the central area of ​​government or economic activity which is a melting pot is certain to stand out.

Political dynamics in North Sumatra

The political dynamics within the concentration of the population model formed from various identities are guaranteed to be dynamic. Each political force competes for influence in every political contest that occurs. In regions like this, Golkar, a nationalist party known for being able to encompass all the social identity forces of the community, plays an optimal role.

Referring to the results of the 1999 elections, amidst political changes that tended to eliminate Golkar's existence, this party still held onto the second position in North Sumatra, after PDI-P. PDI-P at that time did indeed dominate the political stage, in line with the collapse of the New Order regime.

However, in the 2004 election, Golkar regained control of North Sumatra. Conversely, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which was previously able to gather votes from more than one-third of the population of North Sumatra, decreased drastically and could only maintain its support at around 15 percent.

In the next election, Golkar's role in North Sumatra will still persist amidst national leadership changes. When President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was in power, and on the other hand, the formation of the Democratic Party was able to become a national winner and also included in North Sumatra, Golkar remained in second place.

The issue of air pollution is not new. The condition of communities threatened by air pollution has been going on for a long time. There is also no shortage of research evidence indicating the threats of air pollution's impacts. However, in reality, significant efforts to control air pollution have not been made. As a result, residents are increasingly suffering under the siege of air pollution. The PDI-P, which at that time failed to secure its chairman, Megawati Soekarnoputri, as president, caused political support for the PDI-P to decline, leaving around ten percent of supporters, which is below Golkar's achievement.

During the 2014 elections, when PDI-P and its presidential candidate Joko Widodo succeeded, the political position of Golkar actually strengthened in North Sumatra. The results of the 2014 legislative elections showed that Golkar was the winner in North Sumatra, not far from PDI-P's achievement. However, in the 2019 elections, PDI-P and President Jokowi succeeded in North Sumatra, controlling up to 20.7 percent of the North Sumatra voters, while pushing Golkar to third position, behind Gerindra, with 13.18 percent support.

Entering 2024 Election, Golkar is actually under unfavorable pressure. Under the domination of the power of President Jokowi, who is known to be close to the people of North Sumatra, Golkar's political position and progress became less prominent and was obscured by the power of Jokowi, who was identified with the PDI-P. However, the political dynamics occurring ahead of the 2024 elections, which are straining political relations between Jokowi and PDI-P, are an opportunity for Golkar to win support in North Sumatra.

In the political estrangement between Jokowi and PDI-P, Golkar reborn. The Golkar legislative candidates were able to take advantage of the opportunity to attract the support of North Sumatra voters, who were starting to waver and tend to leave the PDI-P. In the 2024 election, with the support of 1,712,074 voters' votes, or around 23.1 percent of the total voters of North Sumatra, Golkar became the winner.

Compared to the previous election, Golkar's achievement in North Sumatra is considered spectacular, managing to increase support by around 10 percent. Other political parties were not able to achieve such a significant increase in support. PDI-P, which previously had a strong presence, has now faded. In that election, they only managed to retain support of 18.6 percent.

Competition for legislative candidates in the North Sumatra II and North Sumatra III electoral districts

If investigated, the strengthening of Golkar's political position appears in all electoral districts that become arenas of political competition. The party has regained power in various characteristic regions in North Sumatra that are considered diverse.

Likewise, in regions in North Sumatra with relatively homogenous social and religious identities, Golkar has proven to be able to come out as the winner.

In these regions, Golkar does have a long history of domination. Electoral District II of North Sumatra, which consists of 16 districts and 3 cities, was successfully controlled up to 28.5 percent.

Those areas are Humbang Hasundutan Regency, Labuhanbatu, Mandailing Natal, Nias, South Nias, South Tapanuli, Central Tapanuli, North Tapanuli, Toba Samosir, Samosir, Padang Lawas, North Padang Lawas, North Labuhanbatu, South Labuhanbatu, West Nias, North Nias, as well as the cities of Gunungsitoli, Padang Sidimpuan, and Sibolga.

In the regions of Electoral District II in North Sumatra with a diverse base of ethnic, religious, and tribal group identities, but concentrated (homogeneous) in the districts and cities of each, Golkar is expected to pass three of its candidates out of the 10 DPR seats being contested. However, in the previous election, PDI-P dominated this area and passed the most candidates.

The figure of Golkar party candidate, Lamhot Sinaga, for example, was able to garner support from 158,973 voters with a concentration in districts around Lake Toba, such as North Tapanuli, Humbang Hasundutan, Toba, Samosir, which are known to be based on the identity of the Batak Toba ethnic group and the Christian religion.

In this region, the popular candidates from PDI-P such as Rapidin Simbolon, Trimedya Panjaitan, or Sihar Sitorus, and Martin Manurung (from Nasdem) are not the competitors who stand out. In fact, Trimedya, who has repeatedly been elected as a member of the DPR, was eliminated this time.

There are also many other Golkar legislative candidates who have gained support, such as Andar Amin Harahap, who has received 140,063 votes. Andar is able to dominate more than three-quarters of Golkar's voters in Padang Lawas Utara District and more than half of Golkar's voters in Padang Sidimpuan, as well as in Tapanuli Selatan which is known as a concentration of Angkola, Mandailing, and Islamic groups.

Golkar's expertise in taking over power is also evident in the Dapil III Sumut area, which includes Asahan, Dairi, Karo, Langkat, Pakpak Bharat, Simalungun, Batu Bara, and Binjai City, Pematangsiantar City, and Tanjungbalai City. In this constituency, despite being ahead, Golkar's control is indeed decreasing.

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Not less than 22.7 percent of voters are controlled by Golkar and are not far behind that gathered by PDI-P (20.1 percent). However, in this region, Golkar is still able to control three seats in the DPR out of the 10 contested.

In District III, interestingly, three seats in the DPR were donated by three Golkar candidates with the highest achievements. For example, Ahmad Doli Kurnia Tandjung was the top candidate with 141,846 votes. Next, Delia Pratiwi br Sitepu, who was supported by 119,047 votes, and Mangihut Sinaga with 116,091 votes.

The advantages of the three Golkar candidates are not separated from their mastery strategy in densely populated voting areas, such as Simalungun, Langkat, and Asahan Regencies, and several other districts or cities. In this Sumatra North III electoral district, PDI-P only passed two candidates, namely Bob Andika Mamana Sitepu and Bane Raja Manalu. Meanwhile, well-known PDI-P candidates, such as Djarot Saiful Hidayat and Junimart Girsang, were eliminated.

Competition between Golkar and PDI-P in the North Sumatra I electoral district

Of all the electoral districts in North Sumatra, Dapil I covering the Medan Raya area, such as the city of Medan and Tebing Tinggi, as well as the Deli Serdang and Serdang Bedagai regencies, is the most competitive battleground.

Electoral district I, which is the hottest area, is where the capital of government and economic activities in North Sumatra are located. In this area, various ethnic and religious backgrounds of the North Sumatra community truly come together.

In electoral district I, Golkar was not able to become the winner as they only managed to control 18.2 percent. Such proportion is still lower compared to PDI-P which had a control of up to 20.5 percent. Even though they lost to PDI-P, in terms of the number of seats in the DPR that they were able to control, Golkar is expected to be the same as PDI-P which controlled two seats in the DPR.

The issue of air pollution is not new. The community has long been threatened by air pollution, and there is no shortage of research evidence indicating the threats of its impacts. However, this has not yet led to significant efforts in controlling air pollution. As a result, residents are increasingly suffering and living in the midst of air pollution. In the first electoral district of North Sumatra, the candidate with the highest support is Sofyan Tan, who has received support from 279,334 voters - the highest number in all of North Sumatra. Sofyan is particularly exceptional because he is the only PDI-P figure who has been able to increase his support compared to the previous election. Meanwhile, other PDI-P candidates tend to experience a decline in their support.

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Support for Sofyan is overshadowed by two Golkar legislative candidates, namely Musa Rajekshah with the support of 190,990 voters and Meutya Hafid with 147,004 voters. Musa, who is known as the Deputy Governor of North Sumatra, and incumbent DPR member Meutya Hafid, concentrate their voter support in Medan and Deli Serdang cities.

By comparing the amount of support successfully collected by Golkar and PDI-P candidates in the three electoral areas in North Sumatra, it appears that Golkar's political fighters were able to tactfully seize the political choices of North Sumatran residents.

In the midst of the loyal support of North Sumatra residents who are more dominant towards Jokowi's figure than PDI-P or PDI-P legislative candidates, the Golkar legislative candidates have succeeded in offering themselves as a political choice that is more competitive and relatively more accepted by every social identity divide of North Sumatra residents. (R&D COMPAS)

Read tomorrow: Sofyan Tan, The End of Banteng Fort in North Sumatra