Regional Election Contestation Heats Up, Will Presidential Election Fraud Repeat?

On the other hand, potential independent candidates who wish to compete in the upcoming regional elections have been working hard to gather support from local residents. This is understandable, as the Regional Election Law requires independent candidates to obtain a minimum of 6.5 to 10 percent support from the total number of registered permanent voters (DPT) in the area holding the elections.

In order to advance in the DKI Jakarta Regional Election, for example, potential independent candidates must obtain the support of at least 618,968 registered voters in the 2024 Election Voter List. The DKI Jakarta KPU has set the number of voters registered for the 2024 Election at 8,252,897. Meanwhile, Law No. 10/2016 regarding Regional Elections stipulates that provinces with a total of 6-12 million voters require independent candidates to obtain support from no less than 7.5 percent of registered permanent voters.

Political lobbying, hunting, and competition for contest tickets are not only happening in Jakarta, but also in many regions. This year, for the first time, simultaneous regional elections are held in 37 provinces and 508 regencies/cities.

The intense competition for local election tickets reflects the tight competition in garnering public support. This situation also occurred during the legislative and presidential elections (legislatif and pilpres) last February.

It is this tight competition that many people believe has made candidates, both legislative candidates (caleg) and presidential and vice presidential candidates (capres-cawapres), and their teams in the 2024 elections use various methods to gain people's support. A number of groups even consider that the 2024 election is the worst democratic party after the 1998 reform because fraud occurred in a structured, systematic and massive manner.

Seeing the election contestation which was full of fraud, the public is wondering, will the same fraud be repeated in the 2024 Pilkada?

Feri Amsari, a lecturer of Constitutional Law at Andalas University in Padang, suspects that similar fraud will occur in the regional elections. In fact, the fraud in the regional elections may even be more severe than in the presidential election. Not only the practice of vote-buying, but also manipulation of voter data and mobilization of state apparatus are predicted to once again become widespread in the regional elections held in 37 provinces and 508 regencies/cities.

"We suspect that in the regional elections on November 27 2024, it is not impossible that these fraudulent methods will be repeated. "The methods of buying and selling votes or money politics and the trend of fraud will be stronger than in the presidential election," said Feri in a discussion with the theme "The Impact of Presidential Election Fraud on the 2024 Pilkada" in Jakarta, Tuesday (7/ 5/2024).

Another fraud that needs to be anticipated is voter data manipulation, such as adding the number of voters in certain areas. In addition, the call for citizens not to vote or abstain in the 2024 regional elections also needs to be watched out for. This is because the mode of paying voters not to use their voting rights occurs in the regional elections.

"So, there are candidates who know very well that they will pay by targeting certain voters and making it a strategy to win certain candidates in the 2024 simultaneous regional elections. They are paid not to go to the polling station," said Feri.

The mobilization of civil servant apparatus for supporting regional head candidates also needs to be watched out for. Currently, there are 198 appointed regional heads in the area. Although selected through appointment, these officials have significant authority, making it easy for them to mobilize civil servant apparatus for certain political interests.

Methods of buying and selling votes or 'money politics' and the trend of fraud will be stronger than in the presidential election.

The mobilization of other state apparatuses, such as the military and the police, which is suspected to have occurred during the 2024 Presidential Election, is also feared to be repeated in regional elections. "It is not impossible for the election to use the apparatus to ensure certain things. Their role exists, even sometimes at central points during regional elections," said Feri.

Researcher from the Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem), Kahfi Adlan Hafiz, added that interim regional leaders who will participate in the Pilkada contest must also be anticipated by establishing strict rules. "They can deploy civil servants, even down to the level of village heads and village apparatus, to become a strong and extensive electoral political force. Don't let it be misused again," he said.

Politicization of social assistance

Another form of fraud that may arise is the politicization of social assistance (bansos). According to Kahfi, the politicization of bansos is actually not a new thing in the regional elections. Because for a long time, bansos have been used by regional head candidates, especially incumbents, to gain sympathy from the people. One indication of the politicization of bansos can be seen from the increase in bansos budget before the regional elections.

According to Kahfi, this practice also occurred during the simultaneous regional elections in 2020. Moreover, at that time, all government budgets were indeed focused on handling the Covid-19 pandemic and its impacts.

Another fraud that needs to be wary of is the practice of money politics during the nomination stage. "The nomination stage has the potential of a marriage between businessmen and donors or campaign contribution. During the previous presidential and legislative elections, campaign funds have not fully presented the reality. Its long-term influence can also damage democracy," said Indonesia Corruption Watch (ICW) researcher Seira Tamara, who is also a speaker in the discussion.

Since the regional elections were held directly in 2005, the phenomenon of buying and selling boats to advance in the regional elections has become increasingly common. Prospective regional head candidates do not hesitate to pay dowry money to fulfill their desire to participate in the regional election contestation. On the other hand, there are also political parties that impose a requirement to deposit a certain amount of money for regional head candidates who wish to be nominated in the regional elections.

After becoming a regional head candidate, many of them are trapped in buying and selling votes. As a result, candidates in the local election have to spend a large amount of political costs because they have to pay for vote buying or public support.

The results of research from the Ministry of Home Affairs' Study and Development Department on the 2015 regional elections show that the cost incurred to win the competition for the selection of regents/mayors ranges from IDR 20 billion to IDR 30 billion. Meanwhile, for governor elections, the amount is much higher, ranging from IDR 20 billion to IDR 100 billion. Political costs are much higher than the average salary of regional heads, which is about IDR 5 billion for one term.

According to Sierra, high political costs have resulted in rampant corruption in regions. There are many regional leaders caught in corruption because they have to pay back political costs that have been incurred during the election. Some regional leaders even engage in corruption to raise funds for the next election contest.

Considering the potential for large-scale fraud in regional elections, Feri encourages the public to monitor the course of the elections. Civil society organizations cannot monitor the regional elections on their own to prevent the recurrence of fraudulent activities during the presidential elections.